ANALISIS KELAYAKAN FINANSIAL DAN PEMODELAN SISTEM DINAMIS TERHADAP SENSITIVITAS INVESTASI PABRIK TINPLATE BERKAPASITAS 100.000 TON/TAHUN DI CILEGON
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34125/jmp.v11i4.3296Keywords:
Financial feasibility , investment feasibility, system dynamics , vensim, tinplateAbstract
Objective: This study analyzes the financial feasibility and investment sensitivity of a planned 100,000-ton/year tinplate plant in Cilegon. Total initial investment was recorded at USD 281.29 million, with a positive NPV of USD 101.44 million, an IRR of 14.82% (above the MARR of 10.14%), a Net B/C of 1.01, a Payback Period of about 6 years 2 months, and a Discounted Payback Period of 6.15 years, indicating the project is FEASIBLE with a narrow margin. Methods: Feasibility was assessed using conventional investment appraisal combined with Vensim-based system dynamics sensitivity analysis. Both approaches consistently identified HRC price as the most influential variable, followed by tin ingot price. Results: The system dynamics approach additionally captured time-delay effects and dynamic cash flow behavior across the project's life cycle, revealing how raw material price volatility propagates through cash flows over time, an insight not offered by static sensitivity analysis alone. Novelty: This study integrates conventional investment appraisal methods (NPV, IRR, Net B/C, PBP) with Vensim-based system dynamics modeling in a rarely studied case within the national tinplate industry, offering a more comprehensive feasibility framework for investment decision-making in capital-intensive, commodity-based manufacturing sectors.
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