STUDI KELAYAKAN FINANSIAL DAN ANALISIS SENSITIVITAS PEMBANGUNAN PABRIK INGOT ALUMINIUM BERKAPASITAS 500.000 TON PER TAHUN DENGAN PENDEKATAN SISTEM DINAMIS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34125/jkps.v11i4.3290Keywords:
ingot aluminium, kelayakan finansial, analisis sensitivitas, sistem dinamis, NPVAbstract
Objective: Indonesia faces a persistent aluminium supply deficit and heavy import dependence, while the mineral downstreaming policy drives domestic value-added processing. This study evaluates the financial feasibility and risk sensitivity of a planned 500,000 tonnes-per-year (TPY) aluminium ingot smelter at Industrial Estate “X”, Central Kalimantan, modelling its ROI dynamics through a system dynamics approach. Methods: A quantitative descriptive approach used secondary data over a 22-year period (2030 construction; 2031–2051 operation). Feasibility was assessed with five capital budgeting indicators (NPV, IRR, Net B/C, Payback Period, Break-Even Point) at MARR 10.14%, complemented by DuPont decomposition and a Vensim-based Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). One-at-a-time sensitivity analysis (±10–30%) was applied to alumina price and coal energy cost. Results: The project is feasible, with NPV of USD 2,285.66 million, IRR of 16.69% (above MARR), Net B/C of 1.761, and payback period of 6.16 years. Energy cost is 1.60 times more sensitive to NPV than alumina price. The CLD identified two reinforcing and two balancing feedback loops explaining ROI dynamics across the project's deleveraging phases. Novelty: This study extends prior alumina-stage feasibility research to the ingot-smelting stage and integrates sensitivity analysis with DuPont-based system dynamics modelling, a combination absent from Indonesia's aluminium feasibility literature.
References
Ayun, Q., Juniah, R., & Azwardi. (2023). Analisis kelayakan investasi penambangan batubara di PT. Cipta Kridatama site PT. KIM, Kabupaten Bungo, Provinsi Jambi. Jurnal Teknologi Mineral dan Batubara, 19(1), 57-72. https://doi.org/10.30556/jtmb.Vol19.No1.2023.1327
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2023). Statistik perdagangan luar negeri Indonesia: Impor 2020-2022. Badan Pusat Statistik.
Butar-Butar, K., & Horman, J. R. (2022). Analisis sensitivitas di PT AE. Jurnal Penelitian Tambang, 4(1), 43-53. https://doi.org/10.56139/intan.v4i1.81
Diwantari, W. P., Herison, A., Usman, K., Zakaria, A., & Kusumastuti, D. I. (2025). Analisis kelayakan ekonomi teknik investasi pembangunan terminal khusus dalam mendukung distribusi tambang batu basalt. Teras Jurnal: Jurnal Teknik Sipil, 15(2), 492-506. https://doi.org/10.29103/tj.v15i2.1290
Fitriani, A., Zahar, W., & El Hakim, M. (2024). Analisis pencampuran batubara pada PT. Bukit Asam Tbk dalam upaya meningkatkan kualitas batubara untuk memenuhi kriteria permintaan PLTU Bukit Asam Tanjung Enim, Sumatera Selatan. Jurnal Teknologi Mineral dan Batubara, 20(3), 165-179. https://doi.org/10.30556/jtmb.Vol20.No3.2024.1563
International Aluminium Institute. (2024). World aluminium statistics 2020-2024. International Aluminium Institute. https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/
Jalaludin, P., Rahman, A., Indah, D., & Andirasdini, G. (2023). Implementasi metode Fuzzy Black-Scholes Real Options Valuation pada rencana investasi smelter nikel. KUBIK: Jurnal Publikasi Ilmiah Matematika, 8(2), 110-118. https://doi.org/10.15575/kubik.v8i2.29738
Kementerian ESDM. (2024). Arsip berita harga batu bara acuan. Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral. https://www.esdm.go.id/id/media-center/arsip-berita
Kusumo, P. A., & Mamengko, D. V. (2022). Analisis kelayakan sumberdaya batuan sebagai peluang investasi stone crusher di dataran rendah Prafi. Jurnal Teknologi Mineral dan Batubara, 18(2), 105-117. https://doi.org/10.30556/jtmb.Vol18.No2.2022.1223
Oetomo, D. S., Ramdhani, R. F., & Wijaya, M. F. (2023). Analisa kelayakan finansial pembangunan incinerator limbah rumah sakit. Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis dan Organisasi, 2(1), 62-67. https://doi.org/10.58290/jmbo.v2i1
Oetomo, D. S., Sutartiah, F., & Amalia, A. N. (2025). Feasibility study of aluminum ingot manufacturing plant development using latest technology with aluminum scrap raw material and 50,000 TPY capacity in Cilegon Industrial Area. Jurnal Teknologika, 15(2), 792-804. https://doi.org/10.51132/teknologika.v15i2.509
Octaviani, A. V., Nabila, A., Mayadi, F., & Saleh, M. Z. (2024). Pembatasan kebijakan ekspor batu bara bagi perekonomian Indonesia. Journal of Management and Creative Business, 3(1), 100-108. https://doi.org/10.30640/jmcbus.v3i1.3538
Pahlevi, R., Thamrin, S., Ahmad, I., & Nugroho, F. B. (2024). Masa depan pemanfaatan batubara sebagai sumber energi di Indonesia. Jurnal Energi Baru dan Terbarukan, 5(2), 50-60. https://doi.org/10.14710/jebt.2024.22973
Reyseliani, N., Hidayatno, A., & Purwanto, W. W. (2022). Implication of the Paris agreement target on Indonesia electricity sector transition to 2050 using TIMES model. Energy Policy, 169, 113184. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113184
Rianto, D., Oetomo, D. S., & Ramdhani, R. F. (2023). Analisis kelayakan pembangunan proyek Smelter Grade Alumina (SGA) pada PT. X. Sainteks: Jurnal Sain dan Teknik, 5(2), 246-258. https://doi.org/10.37577/sainteks.v5i2.598
Setiawan, A., & Rosyid, F. A. (2024). Potensi pertumbuhan dan daya saing sektor pertambangan di Kabupaten Manokwari. Jurnal Teknologi Mineral dan Batubara, 20(2), 99-114. https://doi.org/10.30556/jtmb.Vol20.No2.2024.1501
Sopyan, S., Ramadhan, I. C., & Margana, R. R. (2025). Analisis kelayakan investasi mesin menggunakan metode NPV, IRR, dan payback period di salah satu UMKM pabrik roti di Bandung. Inovatif: Jurnal Teknik Industri, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.36040/industri.v15i1.11667
Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
Sugiyono. (2013). Metode penelitian kuantitatif, kualitatif, dan R&D (19th ed.). Alfabeta.
Wau, F. T., Kiton, M. A., Wau, M., & Fau, J. F. (2024). Analisis strategis kebijakan hilirisasi mineral: Implikasi ekonomi dan pengaruhnya terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Journal Publicuho, 7(3), 1215-1224. https://doi.org/10.35817/publicuho.v7i3.481
